Despite recent rains, we’re not seeing major improvements in drought status (down one percentage point to 57 percent of the state) or statewide reservoir storage (storage down 50,000 acre-feet as of Thursday). However, the runoff pump is primed (soil moisture levels are up), and more rain is on the way over the next week.
[http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1411065598]
Some details from Dr. Wentzel:
· Thanks to scattered rain across most of Texas, the most recent map released by the US Drought Monitor shows continued improvement in the last week. Areas of improvement included the Lower Valley in South Texas, where Severe (D2) Drought disappeared. Statewide, Exceptional (D4) Drought crept up ¼ of a percentage point, but other categories showed improvement. Extreme (D3) Drought was down more than one percentage point and the area free from drought impacts (Nothing) was up almost 4 percent. The area of Moderate (D1) or worse drought was down less than a percentage point and is now about 57 percent of the state.
· Statewide conservation storage dropped about 50,000 acre-feet in the last week (0.2 percentage points). That’s not an increase in storage yet, but it is the smallest decline in the last 6 weeks. With continued rain in the forecast, we should see some improvement in reservoir conditions soon. At present, total conservation storage is 5 percentage points more than last year, but still about 15 percentage points below normal for this time of year.
· As of Thursday, September 18th, conservation storage was up in 6, down in 2, and unchanged in 1 of 9 climate regions with reservoirs across the state. The Trans Pecos had the largest gain, up more than 3 percentage points. The largest decline came in East Texas, down ½ a percentage point. All other changes were 0.2 percentage points or less.
· Conservation storage (as a percentage of capacity) increased in 6 of the 20 municipal reservoir systems that we track across the state, remained unchanged in 1, and decreased in 13. Three systems (Lubbock, Laredo, and Brownsville) were up more than ½ a percentage point. Five systems (Fort Worth, Dallas, Waco, Nacogdoches, and Beaumont-Port Arthur) were down more than ½ a percentage point.
· The Seasonal Drought Outlook, looking out through the end of December, was just released by the National Weather Service and the news looks good for Texas. Thanks to continued movement of moisture into our area from both the Pacific and Gulf of Mexico, the Weather Service expects drought conditions to improve significantly in Texas by the end of the year. Despite improvement, they expect drought conditions to linger in the Panhandle, and North and Central Texas.
Projected rainfall between September 18th and September 25th:
[http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1411065598]
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